How to Predict Football Matches Accurately [2021 Guide]

How to Predict Football Matches Accurately [2021 Guide]

For those of you who would like to sit at home and earn easy money, the world of online sports betting might have an attractive appeal to it. With so many options available, now football bettors can learn how to predict football matches accurately.

If all the different betting approaches you’ve come across have left you frustrated, this should give you a general idea of what you’re getting into. Many people find themselves betting on losing teams, that’s because they do not have the proper technique or don’t follow a good football prediction site.

Like undergoing any activity, before getting into the world of online betting there are a few things you will need to know first.

football prediction

Getting Started with Soccer Betting

The best way to get started with soccer is to first evaluate your situation. Why do you want to bet on soccer? This is the question that you first need to answer. If you have a good reason for wanting to do this, you are probably well on your way to getting started. But even if you are not sure, this does not mean that you should forget about what soccer betting has to offer. After all, anybody can bet on this game. It is quite popular the world over and there is no reason to think that you do not have the right to bet on it.

Now that you know if soccer betting is right for you, it is time to find an online service that is capable of taking your bets. This is something important to remember because you want to make sure that you are not going to put yourself or your money at risk. With so many online soccer betting services to choose from, you should never have to risk making a mistake. Instead, take the time to find what is best for you, and you should not have any problems as you move on with your soccer betting career.

Overall, getting started with soccer betting can be easy enough. You need to first learn about soccer betting, and then decide if it is right for you. From there, the only thing left is to find a good service and then get started. That does not sound too hard, does it?

Football Bettor

Challenges of Predicting Football Matches

Even though in recent years many classification problems can be solved with machine learning algorithm, it is still very problematic to predict soccer outcome accurately. There are many cases when the underperform team win the match against better team. It is because many unexpected things can happen during the match such as red card, injury, and sometimes it just pure luck especially when better team can’t convert multiple chance into a goal while underperform team score a goal with less chance.


How to predict football matches accurately?

In the world of football betting, there are many theories that are coughed up on how you can make loads of money by using certain techniques that help increase your chances of winning. Some of these theories you may come across are just plainly not practical. Accurate football prediction basically means you should be able to read football match reports, sports data, information and know how to analyze it. By knowing how to analyze the current betting information effectively, you can increase your chances of winning and minimize your losses.

Our advanced guide will elevate your betting and provide you with advanced practical insights, knowledge, tips and strategies to improve your betting skills.


Pre-Match Analysis

There are quite a few ways that you can research the soccer bets that you make. Although you may want to look into your own special way of doing this, there are plenty of resources that you can fall back on if you are a bit lost. When it comes down to it, you need to remember that soccer is the most popular sport in the world. For this reason, it should not be difficult for you to find a resource that offers information on all of the games that you are going to bet on.

One of the best ways to research soccer bets is to use the internet. There are literally thousands of soccer sites that are devoted to providing the general public with top of the line information. As you can imagine, the more that you read about the games that are being played, the better off you will be when it comes to choosing a bet to make.

As you probably know, your local paper and digital magazines may cover the game of soccer in depth as well. This is not the case in every part of the world, but is something that you should consider nonetheless. You never know where you are going to find the best information on an upcoming game. Depending on where you live, there is a very good chance that your local newspaper will give you plenty of information on the details that you need to place the accurate football prediction.

Of course, you may also be able to research bets on the soccer betting service that you are using. This holds true only if you are betting online. Most online betting soccer sites will have a resource area that gives you details on the teams that are playing and much more. You should definitely keep this in mind when looking for information.


Factors to be considered


Team and players analysis

  • The quality of the opponent, presence of 3 (at least) important players, injuries, and the playing position of key player
  • Players stats, National team participation and match history
  • Form, concentration, motivation, goal difference, score difference

Match analysis

  • Lineups, position, goals, cards, substitution, head to head
  • Home offense, away offense, home defense, and away defense
  • Round, season, cup or league game

Financial aspect

  • Team’s brand value, market value of team’s players, debts, salaries, financial crisis

Psychological moment and fatigue

  • Team strength, team form, managerial impact, psychological impact, fatigue,

Team rating

  • UEFA coefficient, home advantage, league rank, amount of transfer money, number of goals scored and conceded, wins and losses, league points

Odds and probabilities

  • Standard deviation and probability based on fixed odds, the frequency percentage of the betting odds and various public data.

    In simple terms, odds are the number of points given to the weaker team to equalize the players. In order to make a profit, bookmakers set unfair odds. World-wide there are three main ways of expressing these odds figures: the UK way, the European way and the US way. Personally, the European decimal odds are the easiest to understand and as stated previously they offer the bookmaker the opportunity to offer greater degrees of odds. It is important you familiarise yourself with the different methods of calculating odds. Also, many online betting sites give information like in-play odds, dropping odds and blocked odds.

  • In-play odds: In-play odds enable the player to keep track of the current betting situation, allowing them to make the bets based on real time information.

    Tip: Using the information provided by the in-play odds, the player is allowed to make a more informed decision.

  • Dropping odds: Dropping odds show the wager which have experienced a recent drop in their values.

    Tip: Monitoring the betting odds that have dropped gives you a better idea of the current betting situation.

  • Blocked odds: Blocked odds are the average closing odds, this enables the player to find out what bets are no longer accepted by the bookmaker.

    Tip: You can use the information provided by using it against bookmakers who have not adapted to the new market trends.

    These are just a few of the betting terms used on online betting sites. The world of online gambling can be noisy and confusing. If you are a new to this it might save you some money to get familiar with all the terms before starting off.

Weather and match location

  • Weather at the time of the match (precipitation, humidity and wind), artificial turf, altitude)


Betting analysis

Once you have been betting for a while, it would be very beneficial for your betting career to analyse your football tips (both the won and the lost). You have to put as much information as possible, because if you omit information, you could end up taking wrong conclusions. The information you should have must include:

– Date
– Sport (if you just bet in soccer you can omit this).
– Event
– Market (league, competition)
– Selection (winner, over/under, winner with handicap, etc.)
– Stake (percentage, units, money)
– Odds
– Bookie (bet365, 888sport, etc.)
– Result (won, lost or cancelled)
– Benefit or loss (percentage, units, money)
– Other relevant information (red cards, injuries, etc.)

Soccer betting analysis



Once you have registered this information, you have to analyse it. You have to analyse results for every different type of bet you make, even if you bet just in soccer. For example, if you bet for game winner and over/under goals, you have to separate both types in order to analyse them. I know it’s hard and time consuming, but if you mix all together, you won’t analyse them

The main objective of any punter is to develop an accurate forecasting method by considering factors mentioned above. After that, method can be used to consistently obtain long-term positive returns. To achieve that, we would have to be able to accurately predict the outcomes of matches with potentially valuable odds.


Value Betting

When learning how to predict football matches accurately, one of the first things you need to focus is the Value. Losing punters always focus on “winners”, “surewins” and such crazy things, while professionals always focus only on the value and the price they pay, when they bet.

A person who wants make money in sports betting needs to look for odds that contradict with his/her own probability estimates for a sporting event. This is strictly mathematical approach to betting. You do not necessarily need to believe in the team you put your money on. As long as the odds presented are better than the purely mathematical chance of winning the match, it is a value bet. If you think that the team has got a 50% chance of winning the match, odds above 2.0 represent the value. If you think the team has only 40% chance, it is no longer a value bet. Objects with good value are objects, which will give you a positive payoff over time.

The formula for finding an object value is:


Value bet soccer advice formula


If the result of the above calculation is a number greater than 1.0, then in theory it is a value bet. 

Anyway, if you lack math knowledge or betting knowledge, don’t worry this can be taught. But if you don’t have passion to analyse games every day, passion for numbers, for the odds and probabilities. If you don’t have the passion for learing and improving in sports betting field, then there is no chance.

Mistakes in Football Betting


One of the biggest mistakes football bettors make when they bet is that they confuse 3 things:

  • Football
  • Football Betting
  • Profitable Football Betting

We are all here to win at football betting and make money. Based on our research, we found that this is fundamental thing that most bettors still confuse.

Football is nothing else than activity and the competition between players and teams. One of the reasons why bookmakers win and 97% of all bettors will never make money is because sports fans watch games and they think they “know” the sport.

Football Betting happens once we add probabilities and the odds. Football betting without the odds is just football. Many bettors know how to place a bet. Even, many of them know how to calculate implied probabilities. Also, many bettors look for predictions, try luck, try to analyse games and all this is football betting. But 97% of all bettors are just sports bettors. They help to bring the money into the betting world and they are NOT profitable bettors. It’s just betting. This is why most betting guides where they explain how odds work are completely useless. They don’t teach you how to win. It’s just sports betting.

Profitable football betting is another level. Once you have the ability to find the value with your numbers compared to bookmakers odds (this is what the market represent), then we can start talking about profitable betting. Only 3% of bettors make money in the world. And we are talking about lifetime balance, not about lucky streaks or even lucky seasons. The value simply means that you are paying “good price” on the market. If bookmakers offer odds of 1.90 you must have an idea if this should be 1.70 or 2.20. If you have no idea what you are paying you are just a sports bettor. 

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Main goal of this guide

The main goal of this guide is to help football bettors to understand betting, start using statistics and start winning on their own.

We motivate our members to take action toward achieving their goals by providing valuable content, opportunities, and training experiences.

The question is always the same – “How to Predict Football Matches Accurately”. The problem is that the search for the answer is very narrow. Furthermore, the most of bettors look only for football tips and predictions. Maybe you are one of them. And if you read this, you are probably looking for tips or even paying for tips didn’t work.

You must know that football tips alone are not enough. In fact, searching for sports betting tips is not an optimal way how to win in sports betting.


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