Why is soccer/football the most popular sport in the world? If we approach this matter from the betting perspective then the answer is simple and obvious. Upsets happen all the time in soccer. We also accept the bitter truth that even the most accurate football prediction site fails at predicting upsets in football betting. However, professional soccer prediction services can identify a large number of upsets and surprises in order to prevent a loss.
Stats are Ruthless
Although sometimes frustrating this is also the beauty of betting on soccer because any football team between the two that are competing can pull a surprise win. It makes soccer betting fun and difficult. Stats show that upsets of up to 50% happen in football. Therefore, this is a higher percentage compared to any other sports that people bet on. It is a fact that soccer is a highly unpredictable sport and no one can boast around saying that they are sure of a certain outcome. After all, it is all about luck because even the heavy favourites tend to lose the match occasionally. The outsiders tend to surprise the big clubs especially if the weaker teams are in the face of being relegated.
However, there are factors that help us to predict the upsets in football matches and take advantage of that since they may yield us a good profit. Before we take you through the predictions, it is for your own good to note that betting on the underdogs just for the sake of betting for them is never a good idea. As a betting investor, you need to have a concrete reason for doing that. Those reasons must be good enough to back up your betting on the outsiders.
Tips for Predicting Upsets
When one wants to predict the upsets in a game the following factors need to be considered. They are injuries/suspensions, player motivations, records, and rivalries. These are key factors that the punters need to take a close look at in order to bet for outsiders.
Taking a look at each one of them will be like this:
The records and rivalries
Soccer punters need to make an in-depth analysis of the records and rivalries or just previous match encounters. Upsets do happen especially when the outsiders are facing the big favourites but at their home ground. The home team (outsiders) might have gone undefeated at their soil and therefore will less likely allow their selves to be intimidated by those big favourites. The other scenario can be in a case whereby the outsiders might have suffered a defeat at the hands of their opponents for a long time and hence will most certainly not let that to happen anymore.
Player’s or entire squad’s motivation is a key factor to be considered when predicting the upsets. Motivation comes along when the two teams are really bitter rivals and one of them might have lost to the other in the previous match. The outsiders commonly tend to up their performance in such cases especially if the encounter is a derby.
Also, what is at stake for both teams is another aspect of the motivation. It is very difficult to predict the outcome of the match especially when the two teams that are meeting are aiming at something. One could be aiming to be at the top of the league while the other could be avoiding the relegation zone or even could be eyeing to proceed to the next level in the cup competition. In such cases, all players have the motivation and therefore the outcome could favour any of them. Betting on underdogs in such scenarios could lead to humongous payouts.
Suspensions and injuries
Missing players, suspensions or injuries also bring upsets in a football match. Usually, prominent players dominate on the field and losing one of them might affect the outcome of the game in an awkward manner. The outsiders might have a better chance of winning the match than their opponents. Thus, serious bettors need to be checking the team updates of any new developments. If they find that one of the key players is unavailable for the game and the sportsbooks have not readjusted the odds accordingly, then that is the perfect opportunity for the punter to capitalise on that by taking a chance with the outsiders. The outsider might pull a surprise string and go ahead to win the match and thus a huge payout for the punter.
Other Factors to be Considered
Soccer is a complex game and there are other factors that might come in handy too when predicting the upsets. Any serious punter or the most accurate football prediction site would consider the style of play. It is almost impossible to predict the winner of the match when two, defensively strong, teams meet. An encounter in which a possessive team meeting a defensive side is sometimes easier to predict especially if the defensive team are good in counter-attacking techniques.
The outsiders may opt to defend the match and then make good use of any counter-attacking opportunity that they get. Such teams may end up scoring one or two goals against their opponents and then defend until the end of the game. Thus, as a punter, you need to take a good look at the style of play of the two teams because one of the teams will end up getting favoured using their style of play.
Lastly, there comes a time when the two teams facing each other have equal chances of winning. However, the sportsbooks might choose to award one outsider greater odds than the other. If that happens, a punter can go ahead and back the bigger outsiders to win rather than bagging the other outsiders. The teams that have a little chance of winning do have huge odds but a punter needs to be careful to place a bet on them only if the upset is high enough.
The Most Accurate Football Prediction Site
All in all, predicting upsets is not an easy task as it involves thorough research by the punters. It is a better move if a punter bets on outsiders at the right time. That should be the time to make huge profits.
Also, we recommend the following wagers to use when we think an upset is a possibility because they significantly reduce our chances of losing money.
- Draw No Bet
- Double Chance
- First Halftime Total Goals
With the draw no bet, bookie returns your stake if the game ends in a tie. And with the double chance, we can cover both the outsider the draw. Basically, we get a payout as long as the favourite doesn’t win. On the other hand, halftime total goals predictions are based on statistics and analysis of high or low scoring teams.
We have to take reduced odds with some of these bets. However, in most cases, they offer better overall value than betting on outsider outright. Therefore, we strongly recommend using them or at least considering them for your betting strategy. Most bookmakers and betting sites offer these options, and you can take advantage of them.